When it comes to fraud-vulnerable foods, olive oil is a rockstar.

When Food Fraud Advisors began in 2015, olive oil was considered one of the most fraud-affected foods on earth, with reports of fraud dating back to the first century AD.

And then things got worse – much worse – for olive production and fraud rates in olive oil skyrocketed.

Olive groves in some of Europe’s major growing areas were decimated by the bacterial disease Xylella fastidiosa, which infects the xylem of olive trees and other trees. The disease, which is native to the Americas, has a mortality rate of up to 100% in susceptible olive cultivars. It is spread by insects that feed on sap, such as the meadow spittlebug (Philaenus spumarius).

Since its discovery in Italy in 2013, more than 21 million olive trees have been destroyed by the disease in Southern Italy, devastating local olive oil production.

 

In addition to tree losses from Xylella fastidiosa, droughts and heatwaves in the 2022-2023 season affected key growing areas in Spain, the world’s largest producer, causing harvest volumes to plummet. Similar losses were experienced in Morocco, after annual production dropped to less than half of 2021 levels following two years of drought in the country.

However, things may finally be looking up for olive production and for olive oil. The olive oil industry has been predicting strong harvests and a return to more typical prices for oils since early 2025.

Wholesale commodity prices are currently at just 65 percent of their all-time high, which was reached in January 2024.

Frauds in olive oil include false claims about geographical origin, ‘extra virgin’ status and ‘organic’ (bio) status, counterfeiting of premium brands, theft of oil, theft of olives, clandestine manufacturing, blending with undeclared oils, replacement with other oils and addition of colourants.

The 2024 olive oil crisis

While an increased number of media reports does not necessarily mean more fraud, the fact that both wholesale and retail prices were very high in 2024, and significant enforcement operations were reported frequently, gives me confidence that the increased number of reports is a true reflection of more fraud activity.

Note: the counts I’ve described are indicative at best because they only capture incidents and survey results that have been reported by mainstream media outlets or scientific journals, AND discovered by me and my software systems during my weekly searches for food fraud intelligence.

Did we see the crisis coming?

In October 2023, I warned that due to the shortage of olives in Europe, non-European-grown oils could be fraudulently misrepresented as European oils.

Olives in Europe became so expensive and scarce in 2023 and 2024 that criminals were chainsawing off fruit-laden branches of olive trees, and even taking whole olive trees from orchards by night. Some growers resorted to microchipping their trees in response to the spate of thefts.

Spanish law enforcement agencies responded to the crisis by undertaking 300 different operations in olive growing areas in 2023, stopping vehicles full of stolen fruit, raiding oil mills, and arresting mill operators who were processing stolen fruit.

In Greece, the government warned consumers of increased fraud risks and recommended they only buy oil from reputable vendors.

Is the crisis over?

In Spain, which accounts for 50 percent of global olive oil production, the most recent crop was almost double what was grown in the 2022-2023 season.

Wholesale prices began falling for consumer olive oils earlier this year and a spokesperson for a major Spanish olive oil supplier said in February 2025 that the price drops could be expected to reach supermarket shelves with a three-month lag.

While various pests and diseases are still a risk to olive trees that are stressed by climate change, Xylella fastidiosa is currently contained in Europe. The European Commission has declared the outbreak in Puglia closed.

Portuguese and Spanish outbreaks are similarly declared over, while in Corsica (France) the disease is considered to be contained. Countries continue to monitor for the presence of the disease.

Unexpectedly, some groves that were thought to have been completely destroyed by Xylella fastidiosa have recovered, with a complete restoration of the crown of trees observed in 2024 in some areas of Italy, even among susceptible cultivars. The recovery phenomenon has been observed in young, old and even centennial groves, with some trees once again yielding commercial quantities of fruit.

In the past year, Greek production has rebounded significantly, with the most recent harvest almost double that of the previous year, which was the worst many had seen.

“Last year’s [Greek growing season] was probably the worst period I’ve seen in 20 years,” Prokopios Magiatis, olive production scientist at the University of Athens, who says this year is significantly better.

But the longer-term outlook remains challenging due to our rapidly warming climate.

In Greece, 130,000 olive trees were lost to fires in Evros in 2023, and wildfire burned 11,000 acres of olive orchards in 2024.

Climate change is causing rains to fall at the wrong time of year, leaving the trees with little moisture during winter. Warm winters also cause havoc with the trees’ reproductive cycles – if the nights do not get cold enough, the trees don’t enter the winter dormancy that helps them prepare for the following season.

So, although some industry sources report things are looking up for olive production in Europe in 2025, other sources say extreme heat during flowering and the first fruit set period has already imperiled next season’s crop in some parts of Spain. The Andalusian region of Spain is predicted to have a small harvest for 2025-2026, due to heavy pest pressure, including praying olive blight.

And although Turkiye’s olive industry had a bumper season in 2024-2025, this year’s harvest is predicted to be just 60% of last year’s.

What about olive oil’s food fraud vulnerability?

An increased focus by authorities in Spain and Italy has likely also caused some criminals to think twice about olive oil crime. In the coming months, I’m expecting to see many more reports of convictions and sentencing for crimes committed in 2021 and 2022, as investigations are brought before the courts in Europe.

In June 2025, four people were sentenced to prison in Spain for their roles in a multi-year-long fraud in which low-quality oils and sunflower oils were sold as extra virgin and organic olive oils, using a false geographical origin in the brand name. The crimes were discovered in 2021.

But while things are probably going to be slightly less crazy for olive oil fraud in the second half of this year and into 2026, I still consider olive oil to be particularly vulnerable to food fraud, because there has been no change to the characteristics that have made it a target since the earliest days of agriculture.

The oil is valuable, has multiple grades and variations that are difficult for most consumers to differentiate, carries significant price premiums for organic versions and certain provenances, and has a relatively short shelf life compared to other edible oils. Its liquid form makes it easy to dilute with cheaper oils, with the large price differential making such dilutions very profitable and the addition of colourants making it hard to detect without expensive analytical tests.

There is also a large pool of independent eateries and grocers in Europe which are sometimes willing to purchase from informal supply chains. Together, these characteristics make olive oil particularly vulnerable to food fraud.

Takeaways for food professionals and consumers

• purchasing from reputable vendors and authorised stockists – avoid online stores, markets, street vendors, small independent outlets and anonymous sellers which are more likely to sell counterfeits and products from unauthorised or grey market sources;
• purchasing premium brands, which are more likely to tightly control their supply chains;
• paying attention to the taste and aroma of the oil and informing the vendor of any defects.

In short: 🍏 Olive oil has been vulnerable to food fraud since ancient times 🍏 Experts have been warning of impending supply problems for olive oil due to the climate crisis since 2016 🍏 Tree diseases decimated harvests in major olive growing regions, and drought also had a severe impact on the 2022-2023 harvest, precipitating huge price increases for olive oils in 2023 and 2024 🍏 Reports of olive oil fraud were significantly more numerous in 2023 and 2024 compared to previous years 🍏 Harvests have recovered somewhat, although threats from climate change remain 🍏 Fraud activity and the number of reports of fraud in olive oil is expected to be significantly lower in 2025 compared to 2024, however olive oil remains highly vulnerable to food fraud 🍏

Sources: Links to all sources are hyperlinked within the text.

🔹 Many of the sources used for this article were discovered using iComplai’s AI-powered food fraud risk prediction system 🔹

This post originally appeared in The Rotten Apple.